2012
2012 Selections Derek Wolfe, DE (#36) (Note: Wolfe was drafted as a DT but was always listed as a DE)
Pre-Draft Scouting:
NFL.com Strengths
- Wolfe is an instinctive player who understands how to engage a lineman, extend his arms and read the flow of the play to move off his blocks.
- He can defeat single blocks well and is a decent pass rusher when put in the right scheme where he can slant and stunt to get in good position.
- He sees screens well and can work off his man to disrupt plays inside.
Weaknesses
- He is a slow mover and will not blow back any offensive lineman off the ball.
- He sometimes relies too heavily on his ability to diagnose, as it appears he is reading the play so long that blockers negate him.
- Double teams will give him a lot of trouble and he is on his back often when faced with them.
(Sidenote: NFL.com gave him a 47.5 grade, which means they didn’t project much out of him. If there was ever a player to show that the draft isn’t a science, it’d be Wolfe)
WalterFootball’s scouting reporting on Wolfe ended up being a little more accurate than NFL.com’s. Immediate, Post-Draft reaction:
Denver Post and
MHR Player picked next: Mitchell Schwartz, OT (#37)
Player at position picked next: Kendall Reyes, DT (#49) or Vinny Curry, DE (#59)
2018 BMB Take:
If the 2011 draft/offseason sewed the seeds for the Broncos future domination, then 2012 was the plants sprouting. The offseason was headlined by signing
the biggest name free agent in NFL history. The draft saw the Broncos turn their attention to the other side of the ball and draft three guys who would become impact players on one of the best defenses in recent memory. The Child Eater was the first of these three.
Wolfe is an example of an ideal high 2nd-round draft pick. Short of becoming a truly elite player (which is possible, but not probable in that slot), he’s done everything the Broncos have wanted him. He made a great duo with Malik Jackson (for like the one year the Broncos used Malik properly lol
thanks JDR). He provides a nasty edge on the defense. He’s an extremely physical player who plays with relentless effort and energy. His ability to howl off the edge and pack onto lineman was one of the many things that made the 2015 Broncos a generational defense.
The only concern so far with Wolfe has been various injuries. He suffered a horrible spinal injury in 2013 and had various injuries that plagued his 2016 and 2017 seasons. Looking forward, Wolfe being able to bounce back in 2018 will be key for the Broncos success.
Reportedly, his injury situation has improved. Perhaps that’s a good sign and he’ll be back to eating
children lineman and QBs for 2018. Regardless of what the future holds for him, Wolfe was a very good pick at #36 and the Broncos don’t win the Super Bowl without him.
Brock Osweiler, QB (#57) Pre-Draft Scouting:
NFL.com scouting report Strengths
- He slings the ball naturally, and even though he pats the ball before throwing, his release is so compact and effective he isn't hindered.
- His shining asset is his arm strength; he can hit nearly any NFL-caliber throw at this point in his career.
- He is a good leader and looks in control in the huddle and on the field.
Weaknesses
- Osweiler had on-the-field judgment issues and isn't reliable to protect the ball from turnovers.
- It seems as if he starts to get rolling in a game, and the more confidence he builds, the more of a gunslinger mentality he adopts.
- He is likely a developmental prospect who could struggle if forced to play early.
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction:
IAOFM,
Brock’s reaction,
YahooSports Player picked next: Lavonte David, LB (#58)
Player at position picked next: Russell Wilson, QB (#75)
2018 BMB Take:
If there was ever a pick to criticize, here it is. It’s been a common talking point among the “Elway is a bad drafter” crowd for years, but I’ll share it again here. The Broncos could’ve taken Russell Wilson here, had him sit behind Peyton for a few years, and then trotted him out. Yes, that would’ve been nice and peachy. It’s painful to think about how our current QB issues could so easily have been resolved.
But let’s go back to 2012 and provide a bit of context. I’m not going to argue that
actually the Broncos were right to pick Osweiler over Wilson, all I’m trying to do is explain why the Broncos made that unfortunate choice.
It was April 27th, 2012. The Broncos, around a month ago, signed one Peyton Manning. Ol’ Fivehead was coming off of missing the whole 2011 season with his four neck surgeries. There was a lot of uncertainty about what level of play he would reach. It was a legitimate question whether he would be a capable NFL player again, yet alone the MVP that he would end up becoming. Even if he ended up reaching that level again, he probably had 2-4 years left anyway. The Broncos obviously needed to add another QB, preferably a young one to groom for the future.
Enter Brock Osweiler.
The Broncos decided to
not select Russell Wilson and instead take Brock Osweiler. They were going with the old Al Davis adage of
You can’t teach speed!, or at least in a similar ballpark. The raw, physical attributes of Osweiler were extremely tantalizing for the Broncos. With a few years to sit on the bench and marinate, it was possible he’d work out of his “rawness” and become a decade-long starter for the Broncos. Sure, Wilson had higher upside now. But that present value was useless if he was going to be holding a clipboard for the next few seasons. In that case, having a project guy might work out.
Consensus among scouts
was that the talent was there.
He was pegged as a for-sure 2nd rounder, if not sneaking into the 1st. NFL teams, for as long as the pig has been skinned, have valued talent and potential. Perhaps it’s the ego of coaches and GMs showing or perhaps they are genuinely convinced they can scrub out the stains, but the justifications don’t matter. Osweiler was every QB coaches’ dream; a great athlete with a good head on his shoulders who just needed to get the mental side of the game down. If he could get a handle on that, maybe Manning/Osweiler would be this generation’s Montana/Young.
It didn’t end up that way.
The early results were promising when he received his first meaningful time in 2015. He didn’t light the world on fire, but he played solid enough football to win some big games and help the Broncos clinch the #1 seed. Perhaps with a full offseason of work in the system, with an extremely talented roster surrounding him, the Broncos could end up continuing to be pretty ok after the impending retirement of PFM.
The Broncos plans, the gains from four years of working on seasoning this lobster, all came crashing down. After the season he spurred the Broncos big money offer to sign a bigger money offer with the Texans. After an extremely poor year in Houston, Osweiler found himself traded to Cleveland as a salary dump and eventually cut. He found his way back to Denver as backup/startethird-string QB. All roads
do lead home.
This gamble of project/safe is one that countless teams have taken over the years. The high-ceiling/high-floor young guy has more value than the safe prospect in the moment. Nobody
wants to plan for the worst possible outcome when drafting a player. That’s like going to a first date planning out how you’ll break up with them.
Combine this mindset with the criticisms about Russell Wilson’s height (which, by the way, I find height criticisms of QBs short-sighted and simplistic but that’s a story for another time) and the Broncos had an easy out to roll the bones on the big guy and give themselves some “logical” cover for what could become a head-scratching pick down the line.
One last point about the timeless OsweileWilson debate. Peyton’s
also a huge guy. He was (listed) at 6’5” and ~230. Brock is (listed) at 6’7” (he claims that he’s actually 6’6” and the 6’7” stems from his basketball days so let’s split the difference) and ~240. While I do thinks QBs of any “normal” height can be decently successful (let’s say Wilson’s 5’11 to Brock’s 6’6.5”), there does exist a logical argument that taller QBs need taller lineman and taller receivers and shorter QBs the opposite. Since the Broncos were building their offense around a huge QB like Peyton, the logic of having a young, also huge QB does fit in with this angle.
The Broncos should’ve picked Wilson. It would’ve helped to continue the Broncos dominance and would’ve set the team up for future success. However, back in 2012, the logic
did make some sense. It didn’t work out and that’s regrettable for the Broncos. But criticizing the team for a pick that was rational when it occurred seems a little short-sighted.
Ronnie Hillman, RB (#67) Pre-Draft Scouting:
NFL.com Strengths
- Hillman relies heavily on his quickness and immediate vision to find a seam to be an effective runner.
- He has a natural feel for how to find daylight and can be patient to wait for a pulling interior lineman to get to the second level.
- He has a good burst in a short area to make guys miss, and has the quickness to be an effective short-yardage back in the NFL.
Weaknesses
- Hillman is a very smooth mover but is not very explosive with the ball in his hands.
- He likes to feel his way through the line of scrimmage and usually gets to the second level with ease, but he struggles to run with power or elusiveness to make defenders miss and really break for a big gain.
- He averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his senior year, but those numbers were a bit skewed thanks to some long runs.
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction:
IAOFM Player picked next: DeVier Posey, WR (#68)
Player at position picked next: Bernard Pierce, RB (#84)
2018 BMB Take:
Want a hot take?
Ronnie Hillman wasn’t a bad draft pick. He wasn't good, but he wasn’t bad.
I’ll let Coach Green describe him. Hillman’s scouting report is probably one of the more accurate ones out there. It says his YPC was skewed by big runs (held true in NFL), he’s very fast in open space (yep), not a very explosive/shifty player (mhm), and has little power (accurate). He was more or less the same player the Broncos drafted in 2012 throughout his whole four year career. While this wasn’t what the Broncos wanted, the fact that he had
some success in the league is impressive. Forget him or not, he was the leading rusher in the 2015 season and had a very good game in Week 17 against the Chargers to help them clinch homefield throughout the playoffs.
Ronnie was held back through his career by his turnover problem. He had 8 turnovers over his Bronco career (CJ Anderson only had 4) and showed incredibly low football IQ when he failed to cover the ball in the 2015 AFCCG. He also was unable to put together any sort of consistency from game-to-game. He’d have great games where he’d show his elite speed but then would look like just another guy the next game. His turnover issues also prevented coaches from trusting him. After his fumble against the Colts in 2013 with the game on the line, he didn’t receive a touch for the next 7 games.
Hillman was also crazy young when the Broncos drafted him (20 years old, turned 21 during his rookie year). He was put in the uncomfortable position of having to the Broncos go-to back during their playoff game due to injuries. He wasn’t anything special (22 for 83 rushing, 3 for 20 receiving), but when he had less than 100 touches during the season his performance becomes a little more admirable.
Oh, and the only two RBs worth a darn selected below him were Lamar Miller and Alfred Morris. Morris, who is his generation’s Mike Anderson or Olandis Gary, is a relic of Shanahanigans gone to the wayside. Miller is a pretty good RB with the right skills, though has never been able to put it together consistently. So, it isn’t like the Broncos missed out on anything special (at RB) by talking the Hill Man. While there could’ve been better picks for the Broncos, Hillman did at least contribute something during his Bronco tenure.
What
is daming about the Hillman selection is how he is (probably) the 2nd or 3rd best skill position player the Broncos have drafted under Elway. More on that later, though.
Omar Bolden, DB (#101) Pre-Draft Scouting:
NFL.com Strengths
- Bolden is a superb cover corner capable of playing on an island.
- He is at his best in bump-and-run coverage, where he can recover after stabbing. He is also effective in zone, where he can trigger his foot and drive to make a play on the ball.
- He has speed to start at the next level and the body control to adjust on a ball while covering at full speed.
Weaknesses
- Bolden has played inconsistently and can get caught looking in the backfield while playing zone.
- He is a solid all-around prospect, but he may have trouble working out of the slot early in his career in sub-nickel packages, as he solely has worked outside at Arizona State.
(Remember NFL.com’s score system? I hate to bag on it, but they projected Bolden as a
future All-Pro. That’s, uh, a little less than accurate.)
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction:
The Denver Post had reactions for the 4th-6th round picks here. Player picked next: Kirk Cousins, QB (#102)
Player at position picked next: Coty Sensabaugh, DB (#115)
2018 BMB Take:
In the spirit of #positiveliving, I’m just going to say positive things about Bolden.
Jk, I’m too jaded to do that.
Bolden fits into a trilogy of draft picks the Broncos had in 2012-14 of players who never did what they were drafted to do, but found a role on ST. Bolden found a niche as the Broncos on-again, off-again kick/punt returner. He had a few big returns in 2014 (Bengals, Dolphins) and 2015 (Colts, playoffs against the Steelers), but never became an elite returner. His last season in Denver was limited by a hamstring injury and a partial PCL tear, the latter of which caused him to end his season IR.
As a prospect, Bolden was hyped as a possible sleeper candidate to end up as a good CB. He was First-Team All Pac-10 in 2010 and was looking to have a great senior season in 2011. However, an ACL tear in his knee ended up sidelining him for the entire year and cause him to fall in the draft. For a guy who was getting (fringe) first round buzz after his 2010 season to fall due to injury is exemplary of why guys should always take the money and run.
After the 2015 season was over, Bolden attempted a comeback by signing with the Bears and reuniting with John Fox. However, he was waived before camp was done and hasn’t seen a lot of public interest from teams. Even so, Bolden did work back from a career-altering ACL tear to win a Super Bowl. Perhaps there’s another timeline where he never gets hurt in college and becomes the elite CB he may been. Bolden is a testament to how hard (and sometimes based on luck) it can be to make it to the NFL. At least Bolden, whose career could’ve gone so different if he didn’t catch the injury bug in college, won a ring.
Philip Blake, OL (#108) Pre-Draft Scouting:
NFL.com Strengths
- Blake is a large body who fits well on his blocks. Once there, he can sustain and fight to stay involved.
- He is quick when pulling.
- He will stay in front and mirror defenders in his pass set and has been a stalwart for [Robert] Griffin and the Baylor offense up front.
Weaknesses
- Blake is still a developing talent, displaying average athletic ability and skill sets across the board.
- He's had a tough time against more athletic movers throughout his career and will need time before starting at the next level.
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction:
MHR There isn’t a lot going on in the article, but the comments provide a good “temperature” of how Broncos Country reacted to the pick.
The Denver Post also had reactions for the 4th-6th round picks here. Player picked next: Alameda Ta'amu, DT (#109)
Player at position picked next: Bobby Massie, OT (#112)
2018 BMB Take:
It’s hard to say that a 4th round pick busted, but Philip Blake comes close to it. Blake, who was drafted with the 13th pick in the 4th round,
never played an NFL game and was waived after his second training camp. It’s odd for a 4th rounder to never see
any playing time, let alone not even dress for a game.
Now, the Broncos
did do something similar with fellow lineman Michael Schofield (2014 3rd round) and Connor McGovern (2016 5th round). It’s perfectly ok to have a project player to “redshirt” their first year while they adjust to the speed and physicality of the NFL. Especially lineman, who may need to bulk or cut. But if that was the plan with Blake, why waive him? Was it just so obvious after his 2nd full offseason that he wasn’t ever going to amount to anything? Perhaps this was the case and the Broncos didn’t fall into the trap of the Sunk Cost Fallacy. Good on them!
After his entirely forgettable and unremarkable Broncos career, Blake spent 2013 on the Arizona Cardinals practice squad before being released after their 2014 training camp. He never would play in an NFL game. The native Canadian would return up north and sign with the Montreal Alouettes in 2015, where he
finally played a down of professional football. Blake was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2011 CFL draft by the Alouettes. He would’ve been a top 5 pick, but when it became clear he was going to stay at Baylor and eventually go to the NFL he fell down their draft board. For a guy who didn’t even play football until his senior year of high school, even playing in the CFL is a very impressive feat.
Remember my point about Mike Mohamed and the “lunch pail CFB player”? Blake was the total opposite of this archetype. He fits another trope of the late-round pick; all the raw, physical strengths in the world but none of the technique and skill. The thinking is that with the right coaching and the passage of time, the player can grow from a raw prospect to a tremendous player who can take advantage of their athletic ability. However, with Blake, this obviously didn’t work out.
I don’t like to say
here’s who the Broncos could’ve taken instead, but Mike Daniels was taken later in 4th round. Yikes. However, if the Broncos ended up taking Daniels then they likely wouldn’t have drafted…
Malik Jackson, DL (#137) Pre-Draft Scouting:
NFL.com Strengths
- Jackson is quick off the ball, and more effective when given space to not have to face bigger linemen, usually through a schematic call that allows him to run free through a gap.
- He is able to hold up bigger linemen and then shed those players to get to the ball.
- He had good rush production inside even though he was often physically overmatched, and once in the backfield he is a fluid mover toward the ball.
Weaknesses
- Jackson can get washed out at times by stronger offensive linemen.
- Strength has been his consistent Achilles heel and it's a wonder that he survived after being moved inside after transferring.
- He is better suited to playing end and even then could struggle to get off blocks against Pro Bowl-caliber offensive linemen.
BleacherReport had a little bit about him as well. Immediate, Post-Draft reaction:
The Denver Post had reactions for the 4th-6th round picks here. Player picked next: Tahir Whitehead, LB (#138)
Player at position picked next: Billy Winn, DT (#205)
2018 BMB Take:
The Broncos have had a lot of talented players under Elway. As such, a lot of talented players have left in FA once their rookie contracts are up. Most of these players, while I have fond memories of and wish them well in their future, I don’t end up really missing. Not to say they aren’t great players, but I can accept the loss.
Malik? Oh man, every single time I watch the Jags play I’m like Kylo Ren at the end of TLJ. Thirsty as hell and wishing that things went differently.
It’s a crime against football that the first three years of Malik’s career were spent in JDR’s soft, read-and-react defense. He made only 8 starts his first three seasons. Even counting that lack of playing time, he still put together a 6 sack season in 2013. Once the Broncos hired Wade Phillips in 2015 and moved to his aggressive 3-4, it came as no surprise that Malik Jackson was a human wrecking ball the whole season. For the first time his career he started all 16 games (and all 3 playoff games), while being a dominant force against the run and rushing the passer. Week in and week out, Jackson was a treat to watch in 2015.
One of the hallmarks of any great defense is a bit of a nasty streak and meanness. Think back to some of the great defenses: ‘85 Bears, ‘13 Seahawks, the Steel Curtain, the ‘00 Ravens. Not only did they all feature numerous elite players, but they also had tough personalities that played
through the whistle. Malik Jackson’s penchant for late hits and personal fouls sometimes got frustrating, but it’s that behavior and attitude was a cornerstone of the ‘15 defense. Jackson (along with his 2012 draft classmate Derek Wolfe) made teams think twice before running his way. The Broncos don’t give up only 3.3 ypc during 2015 (which lead the league) without Jackson.
However, it wasn’t meant to be a long-term relationship. His breakout season coincided with his contrat year. The Broncos had a slew of other UFAs to sign (along with assuming they’d have a big contract for Osweiler) and Malik wasn’t coy with his (justified) desire to cash in. As soon as FA opened, he signed a big money contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He made his first Pro Bowl in 2017 and was a big part of the Jags elite defense last year. Luckily, he didn’t reunite with JDR in Oakland as was rumored. I guess the player can leave the Broncos, but the Bronco can’t leave the player.
Malik was a tremendous draft pick in both value and also on-the-field performance. If the Broncos, who have a few late round picks this year, could pick another Malik, they’d be setting themselves up greatly for the future.
Danny Trevathan, LB (#188) Pre-Draft Scouting:
WalterFootball Strengths
- Consistently produces game-changing plays
- Sideline-to-sideline speed
- Quickness to the hole
Weaknesses
- Undersized
- Overly aggressive at times
- Scheme limitations
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction:
PredominatelyOrange and
the Denver Post had reactions for the 4th-6th round picks here. Player picked next: Christo Bilukidi, DE (#189)
Player at position picked next: Emmanuel Acho, LB (#204)
2018 BMB Take:
Remember how in the 2011, I talk about how the goal with 6th/7th rounders is to find guys that are good rotation players? Maybe make an impact on ST or as quality depth?
Yeah, the Lionbacker wasn’t going to settle for just depth.
After playing a mostly reserve role his rookie year, Trevathan started all 16 games his sophomore year. On a very subpar Broncos defense, he was a major brightspot. He made play after play in a year known for offense, including the game-changing pick of Tony Romo against the Cowboys. He basically missed all of 2014 with various knee injuries before coming back in 2015. In that magical year, Trevathan really made his presence felt. He lived in the heart of one of the best defenses in recent history. Like all the Bronco defenders that year, he made clutch play after clutch play. Trevathan’s came in the form of a fumble recovery in the Super Bowl and a pick six against the Chargers.
Trevathan is one of the more depressing players in the Elway draft history. He was a great player in Denver (still is in Chicago), he made a great duo with Marshall in 2015 (which would’ve continued being elite), and the Broncos totally could have afforded signing him after the 2015 season. However, because of his knee history, the Broncos made the smart financial decision to not risk his knees blowing out again and losing the cap space. Because of this, Trevathan ended up in Chicago. He’s played relatively well, but suffered a knee injury in 2016 which prematurely ended his season. If not for his knee problems, it’s possible that Trevathan and Marshall are still terrorizing the middle of the field in Denver.
2012 Draft Comparisons Here’s the sheet with the 2012 drafts of all five teams. If it didn’t work properly, just click the “2012” on the bottom.
A few selected thoughts on the other drafts:
Patriots:
- Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower in the same first round. That’s two great pieces to rebuild a dilapidated defense. While BB and defense go together like peanut butter and jelly, the 2011 Patriots had a defense so bad (31st in yards, 15th in points, 32nd in first downs) that Julian Edelman was playing corner from time to time. Jones was a big part of the Patriots SB49 championship before being traded to Arizona (where he lead the league in sacks in 2017) and Hightower is a tremendous LB who made the game-changing play in SB51.
- Other than those two (and ST player Nate Ebner in the 6th), it wasn’t a great draft for the Patriots. Tavon Wilson never became anything remarkable and Jake Bequette only played in three games over his three year career.
- Oh Alfonzo Dennard, what an unfortunate story you were. He was a really great corner at Nebraska who was first-team All-Big Ten in 2011 along with being named the DB of the year for the conference. Pre-draft he was slotted as a top 3-5 CB in the draft, who would likely hear his name called in round 2-3 and was a fringe round 1 guy. However, a pre-Senior Bowl injury and poor practices called into question his ability to cover guys at the next level. These injuries limited what he could do at the combine and caused him to fall to the consensus 11th/12th best CB in the draft. Still, he was likely to be a round 3-4 pick. Dennard sealed his fate to fall in the draft when he punched a cop in Lincoln a week before the draft. It took four officers to restrain him and ended up being a pretty big story locally. Dennard fell to the 7th round where he was drafted by New England and never really amounted to anything in the NFL. He’s bounced around the CFL and the AFL ever since being waived by the Cardinals in 2015.
Seahawks:
- Want proof that draft analysis isn’t possible for a few years after the draft? BleacherReport gave the Hawks an F and Mel Kiper gave it a C-. You know, the draft where the Seahawks found their franchise QB, DPOY-level ILB, a solid edge rusher, a quality offensive lineman, and a capable depth DB. Even if the Hawks just got Wilson and Wagner and their other picks were all forgettable, it still would’ve been a franchise-altering draft.
- One would think because of how great their 2011 and 2012 drafts were, the JS/PC Seahawks always had pretty good drafts. Well, as will be seen in the coming days, past results really fail to predict the future when talking about the draft.
Packers:
- Not a lot bad or good in the Packers draft. They found a defensive diamond in the rough in the 4th with Mike Daniels and found a guy who would eventually become a Pro Bowl CB in Hayward (though not in Green Bay). However, they let Harrison Smith go to the Vikings where he’s terrorized the Pack twice a year. This was after the year Nick Collins (a very underrated player) suffered his horrible career ending neck injury. The Packers really whiffed that pick.
Browns:
- Mike Holmgren may be a HoF-level coach, but his tenure in Cleveland was marred by horrid drafting. 2012 was the culmination of it. It’s fun to bag on Trent Richardson, but he really was regarded as a future all-pro RB. Brandon Weeden is the really egregious pick to me.
- Let’s break down just how bad Weeden was as a prospect and why taking him in the first round might be the dumbest thing the Browns have ever done. Remove the name for a second and just think of the player. He came from a spread offense (big negative especially in 2012) and had arguably inflated numbers due to Big 12 play. He wasn’t asked to do a lot in how Oklahoma State ran their offense and was put in a lot of one or two read situations. Not to mention being a literal statue in the pocket that made 2015 Peyton Manning look like Madden ‘04 Vick. Now add in the fact that he would be turning 29 years old during his rookie year. Good NFL teams are thought of as generally smart and well-run. Well, the fact that Brandon Weeden had any buzz as a first-rounder shows how this belief can fall flat. Remember how there was a big concern about Bolles would be 30 by the end of his rookie contract (plus 5th year option)? That’s still about as old as Weeden would be at the end of his rookie year. Honestly, Weeden might be the dumbest draft pick in recent NFL history and it doesn’t get near as much criticism as it should. He’s the same age as Aaron Rodgers!
- On a more positive note for the Browns, outside of the first round it was a pretty solid draft. They drafted a good tackle in Mitchell Schwartz (imagine if the Broncos signed him instead of Stephenson in 2016…) and solid WPR in Travis Benjamin. John Hughes wasn’t anything remarkable (bad or good) and Billy Winn has had solid staying power for a 6th rounder.
- On my first draft of this post, I forgot the Browns best draft pick in a long time. He may be high as a kite, but Josh Gordon is one helluva receiver. The Browns used a 2nd round pick on him in the 2012 supplemental draft. He’s missed a lot of games over his career due to suspensions, but if Gordon can get his head on straight (and with his latest reinstatement it looks like he is on that path) he’ll be a tremendous part of the Browns 385th attempt at rebuilding.
2012 Concluding Thoughts Elway’s second draft built the foundation for what would become one of the greatest defenses in recent memory. If Von Miller is the beautiful windows and stunning foyer, then the “triplets” taken in 2012 are the nails and mortar holding it all together. The Broncos, whose 8-8 season the preceding year was a
bit flukey, still had some holes on the roster that needed to be filled. The arrival of Peyton Manning allowed them to take a few gamble picks (Bolden, Osweiler) since PFM covers up holes like he works for a road crew, in addition to the team becoming the go-to destination for all FAs. It changed the Broncos whole draft philosophy.
In terms of value, a team really couldn’t do better than Malik Jackson or Danny Trevathan. To find Pro Bowl-caliber players in day 3 is rare in its own right, let alone to get two in the same draft. These are the type of picks that fuel dynasties and are the backbones of all-time great units/teams. Sadly, in the Salary Cap era, it’s difficult to retain all this talent and make it unlikely to keep truly elite units like the 2015 defense together for too long. The Broncos found themselves in the same position that the Seahawks were in a couple years prior; capped out due to big-money extensions to their best talent while the “tier 2” guys leave for their own big money contracts in FA.
Unlike 2011, there is a clear cut worst pick. I suppose the Broncos tremendous luck on the third day of 2012 wouldn’t hold for all their picks and Blake proved it. Ironically enough, their second highest pick in rounds 4-7 ended up being the one that did literally nothing in the NFL whereas the 6th rounder became a great ILB. Blake’s raw physicality could never be developed in the NFL game and that gamble didn’t pay off for the Broncos.
(I actually had him as the worst pick before slapping myself in the face. I think I’ve been kneedeep in PFR logs too long)
Brock was the worst pick (I ain’t
that contrarian). The fact that they got a few decent-to-good games out of him doesn’t excuse that he was the football equivalent to Tormato. If the Broncos had selected Wilson, Cousins
dead to me, or even Nick “I have as many SBMVPs as Peyton Manning” Foles, perhaps they wouldn’t be in the state of offensive offense they’ve lived in over the past couple of seasons.
While 2012 wasn’t as flashy as the 2011 for the Broncos, it did produce three great defensive players, a solid depth RB, and a ST player who made some good plays. Nothing spectacular, but it got the job done. It’s like duct tape. Good, sturdy duct tape. Without that tape, the 2015 team would’ve fallen apart and not reached the heights it did.
submitted by Four Offseason Moves That Will Reshape The NFC
by Ty Schalter via FiveThirtyEight » Features | FiveThirtyEight
URL:
http://ift.tt/2v8OnPo On Tuesday, we looked at
four players who changed teams during the offseason and could tip the scales of balance in the AFC. Now, we turn our attention to the NFC, where last season’s division champions — the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks — all appear vulnerable, while several of the also-rans they bested have made significant additions.
NFC East: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles
Opportunity: The Dallas Cowboys were the class of the NFC East last season, going 13-3. But a
spate of off-field issues and the potential of regression for second-year quarterback Dak Prescott may open up an opportunity for Philadelphia. Despite finishing last in the division at 7-9, the Eagles were among the best
teams in the NFL according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, finishing fourth in the league (Dallas finished second).
What needed to be addressed: Last year’s No. 2 pick of the NFL draft, Carson Wentz, took the league by storm — at least until fans, media and opposing defenses figured out that he was relying so heavily on the screen pass. According to TruMedia, Wentz threw more passes to or behind the line of scrimmage in 2017 than all but three other quarterbacks. And the Eagles
ranked 29th in yards per completion last season.
Potential impact: Jeffery and fellow free-agent acquisition Torrey Smith will add serious field-stretching ability to Philadelphia’s dink-and-dunk passing attack. Jeffery averaged an outstanding 15.8 yards per reception in 2016; since Jeffery became a full-time starter in 2013, only Julio Jones and T.Y. Hilton have averaged more yards per reception over more receptions. He also provides Wentz with a much more reliable catcher of the ball:Jeffery had the 14th-lowest drop rate of 87 qualifying NFL receivers in 2016, while Eagles WRs Jordan Matthews, Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor ranked 59th, 81st and tied for last, respectively.
Carson Wentz is getting an upgradeHow new Eagles wideout Alshon Jeffery’s 2016 performance compared with that of Philadelphia’s receiving corps.
| YARDS/REC | AIR YARDS/TGT | DROP RATE |
---|
Alshon Jeffery | 15.8 | 13.1 | 1.10% |
Jordan Matthews | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.50 |
Dorial Green-Beckham | 10.9 | 10.1 | 6.90 |
Nelson Agholor | 10.1 | 10.5 | 9.10 |
Source: TRUMEDIA
Question mark: At age 27, Jeffery already has a history of nagging muscle pulls and soft-tissue injuries. He also served a four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use in the middle of last season as a member of the Bears, making his gameday availability an ongoing concern.
NFC North: Jarrad Davis (R), LB, Lions
Opportunity: The Lions were just over half a game of head-to-head football away from claiming the NFC North crown when they squandered a 14-7 lead against the Green Bay Packers — and a 9-4 start to the season. They finished the year with three straight losses to fellow NFC playoff teams, including that Week 17, winner-take-all home game against the Packers. This spring, Detroit
seriously outspent Green Bay in free agency, eyeing a possible first division title since 1993.
What needed to be addressed: Detroit had the worst defense in the NFL last season,
according to DVOA. Their pass coverage was an absolute disaster, allowing opponents to be 38.1 percent more effective than average through the air — by far the worst in the NFL. But none of the Lions’
major signings were on the defensive side of the ball.
Potential impact: Davis, whom Detroit drafted with the No. 21 overall pick this spring, has been the unquestioned starter at middle linebacker since his first day on the team,
according to the Lions’ official site. Head coach
Jim Caldwell told the Detroit Free Press he expects Davis to “quickly” make an impact. Davis’s college defensive coordinator, Randy Shannon,
described Davis as an amalgam of three linebackers Shannon coached at the University of Miami: Jonathan Vilma, Jon Beason and Ray Lewis. Together, those three boast 19 Pro Bowl appearances between them. If Davis’s athleticism and attitude are as advertised, he’ll fill a sizable portion of the hole in the middle of Detroit’s defense.
Question mark: There’s no such thing as a can’t-miss rookie. Projecting a college player’s impact on an NFL unit is closer to superstition than art, let alone science. Further, Detroit’s problems with depth and quality up front were just exacerbated by pass-rusher Armonty Bryant’s
latest suspension; it’s hard for linebackers to make impact plays when opposing quarterbacks are unpressured and tailbacks have free passes to the second level of the defense.
NFC South: Adrian Peterson, RB, Saints
Opportunity: In 2016, the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers finished 6-10, good for last place in the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons improved from a lackluster 8-8 in 2015 to winning the NFC for themselves last season. Somehow, in all the churn around them, the New Orleans Saints have finished 7-9 for three consecutive seasons. But with the Falcons losing the architect of the
offense that took them to the Super Bowl, Kyle Shanahan, to the 49ers, the division could be there for the taking.
What needed to be addressed: Saints tailback Mark Ingram had the fourth-highest per-carry rate of yards before contact in 2016; he didn’t run into a defender until he’d run an average of 3.26 yards. After the crack of the pad, Ingram was solid, averaging a 14th-best 1.82 yards after contact. But he can’t compare to Peterson:
If Ingram needed any guidance learning how to make defenders looks silly, he now has the perfect mentor — albeit one who wants to steal his job. From 2011, the year Ingram entered the league, through 2016, Peterson had the highest average after-contact yardage rate of any back with at least 150 carries.
Potential impact: Peterson’s historical lack of effectiveness out of shotgun alignments seemingly makes him an odd fit for Sean Payton and Drew Brees’s spread-style offense, but the
Saints actually used shotgun formations at the eighth-lowest rate of any team in the NFL last year, according to Football Outsiders. Moreover, New Orleans ranked fourth in average yards-per-play when under center, roughly the same as in the ‘gun, and had one of the smallest gaps in efficiency between the two alignments. Though they still passed 63.4 percent of the time, the Saints are a strong fit for Peterson’s skill set. No wonder
Peterson told Bleacher Report earlier this month that he was impressed by Payton’s passion about the dimension the veteran running back would add to the Saints’s offense.
Question mark: Peterson is a 32-year-old running back with 11,747 of the hardest-earned yards in recent NFL history already on his odometer. The jury is out on how effective he could be moving forward.
NFC West: Haason Reddick (R), LB, Cardinals
Opportunity: At this time three years ago, the NFC West was one of the two best divisions in football. The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks had a death grip on the rest of the NFC, but the Arizona Cardinals were right on their heels. Since then, attrition has taken a toll on all three squads; a Cardinals team that went 29-9 with Carson Palmer under center from 2013 to 2015 finished second in the division last year at 7-8-1.
What needed to be addressed: A host of defenders from recent years
left in free agency this past offseason. The Cardinals lost Calais Campbell, Kevin Minter, Alex Okafor and Tony Jefferson, who finished first, third, seventh and 10th, respectively, on the team’s
defense in Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Approximate Value from 2013 to 2016.
The Cardinals boasted a top-three DVOA defense in three of those four seasons, but to keep that up, they’ll need the best of whoever is left — including Karlos Dansby, who returns at age 35 after three years elsewhere. Arizona desperately needs a young impact defender who can run, cover and hit at all three levels of the defense.
Potential impact: Reddick, a Temple product who put up
an outstanding combine performance, has the size and athleticism to run with the Cardinals’ outstanding secondary. The 6-foot-1, 237-pound No. 13 overall pick was among the
top-performing linebackers in the 40-yard dash (4.52 seconds), vertical jump (36.5 inches) and broad jump (133 inches). General manager Steve Keim told the media that he expects Reddick to have a “huge” impact,
according to the team’s official site — and Reddick’s timetable to contribute has since been accelerated, with linebacker Deone Bucannon slated to start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list.
Question mark: As with Davis, measurables and fit alone don’t guarantee anything in the NFL. Reddick will have to prove that his knack for playmaking in the AAC can translate to the NFL.
submitted by bleacher report college football picks against the spread week 12: bleacher report college football: bleacher report college football picks against the spread bowl games: bleacher report: bleacher report college football picks against the spread week 5: espn: bleacher report college football picks against the spread week 7: cbs sports Bleacher Report · 2 days ago. Two elite wide receiver prospects are among the top three picks in ESPN NFL draft expert Mel Kiper... Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs picks, predictions: Who wins Super Bowl 55? The Arizona Republic · 3 days ago. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) face off on Sunday, Feb. 7, in Super... NFL Mock Draft Tracker Week 3: Does a ... College Football College Football Odds Week 10: Picks, Predictions and Spread for Top 25 Teams Joe Tansey @ JTansey90. Featured Columnist November 1, 2018 Comments. Michael Woods/Associated Press ... Expert College Football picks and predictions from SportsLine.com Upset picks: 2-11, .154 (0-2 last week) With that, Sporting News' Week 10 picks against the spread for every top-25 team (odds provided courtesy of Sportsbook Review as of 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday ... College Football Predictions College Football Picks Against the Spread Week 10: Breaking Down Top 25 Lines Mike Osterberg Correspondent I November 3, 2010 Comments MORE: College football bowl projections for Week 10 There are two more games between ranked teams on the schedule. No. 9 BYU visits No. 21 Boise State at 9:45 p.m. Friday, and No. 23 Michigan ... The team highlighted in green is the College Football Game Picker team predicted to cover the spread. This week we will have 6 Premium Picks Against the Spread. (Thursday, December 10th) – Florida Atl. Vs Southern Miss This game is a Premium Pick. 2020 College Football Week 10 Free Predictions and Picks Against the Spread November 3, 2020 30A Sports Picks Free Content 0 Use the Matchup generator above to analyze all games by comparing the offensive ratings for each unit versus the opposing defensive unit.
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