Hello Friends,
Over at the
/FloridaGators Discord this season we have put together a game guide each week where each day we look a little deeper into the upcoming matchup. It begins with a short recap of the prior game and moves forward from there. If you are not yet in the discord, please join us! We'd love to have you. We have daily discussions on recruiting, analysis, and most of the time we just hang out and chat Florida Gators.
Discord Invite Link Without further ado, the Game Guide. Let us know what you think and if you have any ideas or feedback, we'd love to hear it. Special thanks to stev_mmk, bgr308, DrMartyLawrence, and Eric-UF for their contributions this week.
Week 2 Recap by
bgr308 This week, in a very empty stadium with a weird atmosphere with spread out Gator fans wearing masks intermingled in the bleachers with cardboard cutouts, Will Muschamp returned with his Gamecocks to Gainesville for the third time since stepping down as head coach in 2014. The defensive had some similar struggles as last week, but also made some decent plays, including forcing punts on 3 of South Carolina’s first 5 drives and forcing a fumble in the second half. The defense struggled in one aspect where it was elite last season, which was allowing touchdowns on a short field as 2 of South Carolina’s 3 touchdowns were after Trask turnovers.
The offense, especially in the first three quarters, did not struggle. Trask had another good day passing with 4 touchdowns and 268 yards. He did, however, commit two turnovers; one of these was a fumble on a designed run, the other was an interception that is likely more on the receivers than it was on him. Grimes and Toney were supposed to be running a pick or rub play to the field side, but there was a miscommunication at some point and both receivers were blocking, leading Trask to throw a pass to no one besides Israel Mukuamu. Pitts had another great day with two receiving touchdowns and is on pace to break Troy Edward’s record for receiving touchdowns in a season. Kadarius Toney has also continued to show he is a big-time playmaker, which was shown on a long touchdown reception where he somehow avoided at least 5 would-be tacklers on his way to the endzone.
The entire team seemed to go on cruise control after scoring to go up 38-14 late in the third quarter, which might have been an issue if not for Will Muschamp’s inability to understand clock management, getting the ball down 14 with 8 minutes left and going on a 7 minute drive that ended in them turning the ball over on downs inside the Florida 5 yard line with under a minute remaining, securing a final score of Florida 38, South Carolina 24.
Florida vs. South Carolina: Advanced Stats Graphical Review by
DrMartyLawrence Link to Twitter Post Marty's Analysis is based off Bill Connelly's Five Factors: College Football's Most Important Stats
Opponent Preview: Texas A&M by
stev_mmk This week, Florida visits Texas A&M at Kyle Field. The projected odds and score are 35.7 Florida to 23.1 Texas A&M, Projecting a Florida victory. The line opened as high as -7.5 Florida and now sits around -6.5 Florida.
A&M is coming off of a 24-52 loss to No. 2 Ranked Alabama. Kellen Mond was a pre-season top 5 QB in the SEC, and he put up a middling 25/44 with 318 yards, 7.2 AVG and 3:1 TD:Int. Mond is very hit or miss, but still a player to keep an eye on. Florida's defense has largely struggled against QB's who can use their legs (Matt Corral, anyone?).
Meanwhile, A&M gave up 20/27 with 435 yards, 16.1 AVG and 4:1 TD:Int for Mac Jones. In my humble opinion, Mac Jones is an above average QB, but he isn't a heisman candidate and shouldn't be anytime soon. Alabama plays as similar of an offense as you may find to Dan Mullen, although Mullen generally will be more "progressive" as Alabama still has remnants of the old-style. I compare the two (Alabama and Florida) because I anticipate Florida will take a similar offensive approach as Alabama - a pass heavy approach with quick scoring and a defense that does just enough, although there's no doubt Alabama's defense is far superior at this point in time.
The Aggies are 1-1 on the season, and were ranked 13 going into the Alabama matchup. They fell to 21 with the newest rankings, which if the Gators handle business in College Station is still a ranked opponent nonetheless.
My prediction? 41-24. The Gators are consistently winning (by consistently I mean 2 games) by 14 (give or take). I don't think Kellen Mond will be as much a threat as some may have thought preseason, but still a threat. I predict the offense finds its killer instinct in the 4th quarter and rebound from South Carolina. A&M's defense does not worry me. Expect the Aggies to keep it close coming into halftime before the Gators ultimately pull away late in the third.
Texas A&M - Players to Watch by
chitowngator Offense QB - Kellen Mond (Senior) Kellen Mond is mobile quarterback in his senior year at Texas A&M, in his third year under coach Jimbo Fisher. During this time, Mond has had highs and lows, while averaging 3000 yards, 22 TDs, and 9 INTs over his last 2 seasons. Also considered a threat on the ground, Mond has rushed for 488 yards and 8 TDs on average during the same timespan.
Much like Feleipe Franks, Kellen Mond has shown flashes of potential maligned by inconsistency. Dr. Jekyll-Mond can look like a Day 2 draft choice, while the very next play Mr. Hyde-Mond can come out and look as lost as an abandoned puppy at a truck stop off I-10 in Gulf Shores, Mississippi. While having a strong arm, Mond has struggled with accuracy on deep balls but generally maintains efficiency on short-to-intermediate passes. Expect to see a lot of shotgun formation with RPOs built in to help keep the Gator defense off-balance and make use of A&M's running game.
Kellen Mond TD run off option vs Oklahoma State - 2019 Texas Bowl Kellen Mond Pick-6 vs Alabama 2020 RB - Isaiah Spiller (Sophomore) Spiller returns as Texas A&M's leading rusher this year, coming off a productive freshman year where he rushed for 10TDs at 5.4 yards per carry for a total of 946 yards. A big, physical back, Spiller will be featured as the primary back in Jimbo's pro-style offense. Expect to see Spiller running between the tackles while also having the ability to run off-tackle as well. In week 1 against Vanderbilt, Spiller rushed for 117 yards on 8 carries, including a 57 yard gain with some decent speed. Against the more formidable Alabama defense, Spiller had 11 carries for 25 yards and struggled mightily.
Isaiah Spiller 50 yard TD Spiller 57 yard run vs Vanderbilt RB - Ainias Smith (Sophomore) As a wide receiver turned running back, Ainias Smith will be seen splitting carries with Spiller in the backfield, but will also be featured in the slot. He displayed tremendous speed and excellent pass-catching ability against Alabama, where he had 6 catches for 123 yards, 2 TDs, and 152 all-purpose yards.
On Saturday, Smith will be all over the field on offense as well as punt returns, where A&M hopes to get him the ball in space where he is the biggest threat.
Ainias Smith Speed Option TD vs Vanderbilt Smith 47 yard TD vs Alabama Other Names to watch:
Jalen Wydermyer (TE, So) Chase Lane (WR, RS Fr) Caleb Chapman (WR, RS So) Defense S - Demani Richardson (Sophomore) Richardson played in 12 games as a true freshman and brought a physical presence to the safety position for Texas A&M. While sometimes struggling in coverage, Richardson has shown exceptional ability to cover the field and make tackles in open space. Although he is young, you can expect to see Richardson become one of the premier SEC safeties over the next couple years. In week 1, Richardson was the SEC's highest graded defensive back according to PFF.
Richardson open field tackle MLB - Buddy Johnson (Senior) With the opt-out of potential breakout player Anthony Hines, Buddy Johnson will be stepping up as A&M's leader in the linebacker group. Experienced in all linebacker positions, Johnson is poised to be one of the better backers in the SEC this year. He is fast enough in coverage to make opposing quarterbacks reconsider their reads, which also helps him in shooting gaps in the run game and undercutting throwing lanes. On Saturday, Johnson will likely be the first player our running backs make contact with coming out of the backfield.
Johnson TFL CB - Myles Jones (Senior) At 6'4", 185 lbs, Myles Jones will be the lead corner for the Aggies after opt-outs from corners Elijah Blades, Derrick Tucker, and Clifford Chattman. Due to his height and length, Jones will match up well with the height advantage the Gators receivers have over most DB matchups. Despite his height, Jones has very fluid hips and is athletic enough to have high upside, but can struggle with recovery speed against quick receivers. With that being said, I think many of the targets he receives will be in the short to intermediate passing range so that our playmakers can leverage their technical route-running against his weaknesses.
Opt-Outs Texas A&M has seen what is likely the second most opt-outs on their roster for the 2020 season behind LSU. Some of the key names that were supposed to be big contributors to the Aggies include leading receiver Jhamon Ausbon, linebacker Anthony Hines, and defensive backs Elijah Blades, Derrick Tucker, and Clifford Chattman. Expect this to affect the Aggies significantly as we will look to tune our offense to take advantage of these opt-outs.
2020 Opt-Outs:
Jhamon Ausbon (WR, JR) Elijah Blades (CB, SR) Derrick Tucker (DB, SR) James Foster (QB, FR) Anthony Hines (LB, JR) Clifford Chattman (CB, SR) National Media predictions on the game: Bill Connelly, ESPN, SP+: Florida 33 A&M 23
247 Sports (multiple): Brad Crawford Texas A&M 31, Florida 24
Chris Hummer Florida 34, Texas A&M 31
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Florida 38 A&M 28 - Florida covers the Spread
Sam Cooper, Yahoo Sports: Florida to win and cover
CBS Sportsline Model: “The model is projecting Florida quarterback Kyle Trask to throw for almost 300 yards, while tight end Kyle Pitts records 80 yards of receiving and a score, as the Gators win by double digits and cover in almost 60 percent of simulations.”
Position Group Matchups by
Eric-UF Link to Matchup Graphic To continue the theme of both last week's matchup and our prior notes here, keep a special eye on A&M's Defensive Backs versus the deep WR group of Florida. Although Florida has advantages across the board here - the specific matchup to watch will be the Secondary vs. WR group of Florida.
I still fully expect Florida to have a similar approach as Alabama did last week. The offenses are built similar and Dan Mullen definitely watch the tape on that one. Expect Kyle Trask to light them up, moreso than Mac Jones. Another interesting matchup is the Florida DB's to the A&M WR group. A&M is very young at WR and their adjusted rating of .815 reflects that. Time for Torian Gray to earn that paycheck and prevent some easy points on the board.
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